The signs of getting disrupted…
How do you know if your company is making billions but is about to be disrupted? Imagine you were working at Nokia some years back and you just made a record year but at the same time both the iPhone as well as Android were going viral. If you would have known back then what the future had in store, then you would have switched to Samsung, Google or Apple and would now be an affluent star instead of a jobless dinosaur. What are the 5 signs you should have picked up?
1. Viral competitors
If your competitors are having more potential customers than they can cater for and your company hasn’t: red alert.
2. Lack of leadership
Can you name any Nokia CEO before Elop? [Author of the worst CEO email ever, the one about leaving the burning oil platform but offer no place to go].
3. Many new products but no successes
Remember the first touchscreen Nokia phone. I can not belief anybody liked that product.
4. Growth by expansion
Nokia was growing revenues not because they sold more units in Europe or the US but because they expanded very aggressively globally. Their money maker was their most basic product line that was sold in developing countries. This was in contrast with their competitors that were growing like crazy in Nokia’s key markets.
5. Old technology that is not user friendly
Remember those J2ME times. You wrote apps and packed them in a format that in theory could work everywhere. However users would have to be very persuasive to actually install your application because they would go through several scary dialogues about them really being sure they wanted to install this package.
Who is working in the next Nokia?
Any telecom employee!
1.Viral competitor: viral Facebook/WhatsApp and Google/Hangout
2. Leadership: Except for Cesar Alierta, name 3 telecom CEOs?
3. New products: any new products your operator launched that you were not ashamed to show your friends? Anybody???
4. Growth by expansion: Telefonica’s cash cow = Latin America. Spain is economically dead for them. WhatsApp is growing strong in Spain.
5. Old technology: SS7. No further argument needed.
Any other industries?
Retail vs. eCommerce [Bezos against the world]. Retail banking vs. PayPal/Stripe/Square/etc. HP/Dell/IBM vs. AWS/Azure/etc. VMWare vs. OpenStack.
If you think/know your company or industry is on the list, then nothing better to do then to start crafting your CV and to get up to speed on the competitor’s innovations. Several ex-Nokia experts found good jobs at Apple and Google in the early days. Waiting means you get to see how a new CEO can burn down a successful empire in 24 months…